?「2024年國際區域或兩岸情勢之展望」文章系列
?國際政經環境三大變數
黃奎博（對外關係協會秘書長、政大外交系教授／國際事務學院全球及區域風險評估中心主任）
2024年1月3日
當前的國際主流政經環境，看似以西方現實主義與國家相互依賴為主，由此展現出的是：一、軍備競賽但不輕易用兵；二、區域經濟合作不斷但進入深水區；三、關鍵產業供應鏈重組但牽動範圍複雜。
首先，歐美及東亞多國因為俄烏衝突和區域情勢緊張而加快軍武現代化的速度，自從2016年以後，國防經費呈現整體上昇之勢，而成長比例最高的應屬東亞諸國。美國自己的年度國防預算始終高居全球第一，大致等於排名第二（中國大陸）到第十的國防預算的總和。
北大西洋公約組織與俄羅斯、美國與中國大陸，似均避免升高軍事對峙之舉，常常點到為止，但中東國家內戰所衍生出的區域局部衝突，以及朝鮮半島上北韓較難預測的政軍行動，可能是點燃更大衝突的導火線。
其次，全球目前大概有九大區域經濟合作系統，絕大多數都還在持續推動中。歐盟是最成熟的一個，北美、東南亞國協的或許次之，南美洲的、歐亞經濟共同體等其他的或許紙上談兵多於實際操作。歐盟、北美、東南亞國協的整合已臻一定階段，但後續的非經貿類整合進度緩慢。至於非以組織型態存在的跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定（CPTPP）與區域全面經濟夥伴協定（RCEP），兩者都剛剛上路，前者相對高規格及多議題面向的規劃，看似進一步整合的難度較高。
因為美國對中國大陸採競爭模式所導致的經貿體系與供應鏈不確定，而且美國拜登政府對於經貿整合採暫時觀望的態度，所以不論是區域內整合或區域間整合，都受到前述狀況的影響。
最後，關鍵產業供應鏈重組已經在美國對中國大陸的主動出擊下啟動，但能否合理有效的重組，牽涉的內容複雜。在新冠疫情前，線上購物、無人工具運送、環境保護標準提高等現象已開始影響供應鏈後勤安排，疫後的匯率變動、美中貿易、科技競爭又進一步影響廠商供應鏈規劃。
目前全球關鍵產業供應鏈是否一定要捨中國大陸而就美國，看似仍在未定之天。美國有非常巨大的經貿與科技實力，但中國大陸仍有龐大市場吸引力及一定的經貿與科技實力，屆時或許要看雙方領導人的意志力、市場吸引力以及經貿與科技策略選擇而定。
? "International regional or cross-strait situation outlook 2024" article series
? Three major changes in the international political and economic environment
Huang Kui-bo (Secretary-General of the Association for Foreign Relations, Professor of Foreign Affairs Department of the University of China/Director of the Global and Regional Risk Assessment Center
3 January 2024
The current international mainstream political and economic environment seems to be based on Western realism and national interdependence, which shows: first, arms competition but not easy to use troops; second, regional economic cooperation continues but enters deep water; and third, key industries supply chains are restructured but complex.
First of all, Europe, the United States and East Asian countries have accelerated the pace of military modernization due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict and regional tensions. Since 2016, defense spending has shown an overall upward trend, and the highest percentage of growth should belong to East Asian countries. America's own annual defense budget consistently ranks first in the world, roughly equal to the sum of the second (Mainland China) to 10th.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, along with Russia, the United States and China, seems to avoid escalating military standoffs, often to the point, but regional conflicts spawned by civil wars in the Middle East and less predictable political and military actions by North Korea on the Korean peninsula may be the fuse for a bigger conflict.
Second, there are currently about nine regional economic cooperation systems in the world, most of which are still being promoted. The European Union is the most mature one, North America, Southeast Asian Nations, perhaps second, South America, Eurasian Economic Community, etc. may be more talk on paper than practical. EU, North America, and Southeast Asian Nations integration is at a certain stage, but subsequent non-trade integration is slow. As for the non-organizational Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), both are just on the way, the former is relatively high specifications and multi-issue-oriented planning, and seems to be more difficult to integrate.
Due to the uncertainty of the economic and trade system and supply chain caused by the US competitive model against China, and the US Biden administration's temporary wait-and-see attitude towards economic and trade integration, both intra- and inter-regional integration are affected by the above situation.
Finally, key industry supply chain reorganisation has been initiated under the US initiative on mainland China, but whether the reorganisation is reasonable and effective is complicated. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, online shopping, drone delivery, and improved environmental protection standards have begun to affect supply chain logistics arrangements, and post-epidemic exchange rate changes, US-China trade, and technology competition have further affected manufacturers' supply chain planning.
Whether the global supply chain of key industries must be left to China and the United States at present seems to be uncertain. The United States has very huge economic, trade and technological strength, but mainland China still has a huge market attractiveness and a certain amount of economic, trade and technological strength, which may depend on the willpower, market attractiveness, and economic, trade and technology strategy choices of the leaders of both
 


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