?「2024年國際區域或兩岸情勢之展望」文章系列
?東南亞區域情勢展望
程祥雲 (對外關係協會東協中心副執行長；前Taiwan in the UK 駐英國台北代表處公使、Taiwan in Malaysia 駐馬來西亞台北經濟文化辦事處公使)
2023年12月24日
中國崛起威脅美國世界獨強的地位， 也使以美國，歐盟等開發國家組成西方軸心(west-axis)國， 面對中國，俄國等反西方軸心 (Anti-West-Axis)國之強烈挑戰。2023年目睹以哈戰爭在俄烏戰爭籠罩下爆發，也看到中美貿易戰爭持續進行無視年底舊金山拜習會之舉行。
2023年國際情勢發展加上2024年國際情勢預判，謹就2024年東南亞國際情勢展望如下:
1、政治與安全情勢:2024年東協(ASEAN)持續發展，新增第11會員國仍須時才能正式成為會員國，惟罕見之東協減一(緬甸)發展或可落幕。寮國為為2024年東協主席國，除請泰國幫忙外，東協親中國家主政，自然在南海行為準則談判上無法形成共識，菲中南海爭端雖無法完全止息卻將試圖管控衝突。中國將緬甸果敢詐欺犯抓回後，並無意消滅果敢武裝力量。新加坡總理李顯龍2024年11月交棒黃循財;印尼2月14日舉行總統中央與地方民意代表選舉，及建新都Nusantava將影響星印兩國政治及安全情勢甚至續予關注。中美在東南亞競逐影響力，東協各國盼能仿訪泰國竹子外交兩方都不得罪，以越南為例，美國拜登訪越簽署兩國全面戰略夥伴合作關係，中國後訪越南盼升級為中越命運共同體關係，越南硬是未點頭，深究其因中國佔領黃沙群島(西沙群島)怎會是我越南之命運共同體。2024年可看到東協政治與安全共同體持續加強，各國軍購軍事合作軍事基地建設等都在尋求軍事自主。
2、經濟與社會情勢:2023年受惠於美中貿易戰爭及供應鏈重組，東協各國特別是越南受到美國半導體及資通訊產業將生產移至東南亞，投資資金湧入，惟因景氣復甦遲緩，消費需求未增加而尚未 獲利，展望2024年經濟景氣確實可期;但是需加緊培育高科技人才以利生產，防阻印度在印太架構下分一杯羹。東協在2024年會在數位經濟，保護勞工，綠色能源，減碳排與氣候變遷等加強合作。
3、 東協與台灣關係展望:2023年東協曾關切台海情勢，且台灣在半導體產業有技術優勢，及在供應鏈生產有管理及整合之經驗，確實可提供相關先進技術，人才培訓及管理經驗與東南亞各國參考，展望2024年東協與台灣充滿互利與雙贏之合作契機。
? "International regional or cross-strait situation outlook 2024" article series
South East Asia regional situation outlook
Cheng Xiangyun (Vice CEO of Association for Foreign Relations ASEAN Center; former Taiwan in the UK 駐英國台北代表處 Minister, Taiwan in Malaysia 駐馬來西亞台北經濟文化辦事處 Minister)
24 December 2023
The rise of China threatens America's position as the world's sole power, and it also makes developing countries such as the United States, the European Union and other countries form the West-axis countries, facing strong challenges from anti-Western-Axis countries such as China and Russia. 2023 witnessed the outbreak of the Israel-Kazakhstan War under the umbrella of the Russian-Ukrainian War, and also saw the Sino-US trade war continue despite the end of the year
The international situation in 2023 plus the international situation in 2024, the outlook on the international situation in Southeast Asia in 2024 is as follows:
Political and security situation: ASEAN (ASEAN) continues to grow in 2024, adding an 11th member will still take time to officially become a member, but rare ASEAN minus one (Myanmar) development may come to an end. Laos is the ASEAN chair country for 2024, apart from asking Thailand to help, ASEAN pro-China countries are in charge, naturally cannot reach a consensus on the negotiations on the code of conduct in the South China Sea. Although the Philippines and South China Sea dispute cannot be completely stopped, it will try to manage the conflict. China has no intention of destroying the Kokang armed forces after capturing the Burmese fraudsters. Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong handed over Huang Chuan in November 2024; Indonesia held President Central and local election representatives elections, and the establishment of the new capital Nusantava, will affect the political and security situation of the two countries and even continue to pay attention. China and the United States are competing for influence in Southeast Asia. ASEAN countries hope to imitate Thailand's bamboo diplomacy is not guilty. Taking Vietnam as an example, the United States Biden visited Vietnam to sign the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. China's visit to Vietnam hopes to upgrade to a Sino-Vietnam community of destiny. Vietnam has never nodding its head. We will explore how it is the common destiny of my Vietnam because of China's occupation of the Huang Sa Islands (Xisha Islands) 2024 will see the ASEAN political and security community continue to strengthen, and all countries are seeking military independence for military procurement cooperation and military base construction.
2. Economic and social situation: In 2023, thanks to the US-China trade war and supply chain restructuring, ASEAN countries, especially Vietnam, are affected by the US semiconductors and information and communication industries to move production to Southeast Asia, investment funds are pouring in. However, due to the slow recovery of the economy, consumer demand has not increased and it has not yet made a profit. Looking forward to 2024 economic prosperity is indeed expected; however, it is necessary to step up the cultivation of high-tech talent to facilitate production, and prevent India from taking a ASEAN will strengthen cooperation in the digital economy, worker protection, green energy, carbon reduction and climate change in 2024.
3. ASEAN-Taiwan relations outlook: ASEAN was concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait in 2023, and Taiwan's technological advantages in the semiconductor industry, and its experience in management and integration in supply chain production can indeed provide relevant advanced technology, talent training and management experience and reference to Southeast Asian countries, looking forward to 2024 ASEAN and Taiwan full of opportunities for mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.


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