夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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夏立言大使於致詞時表示，最近報紙常看到兩岸是否可能有戰爭，兵役是否延長，美、日盟友是否會支援等議題，對此相當感慨。過去，世界上最容易發生戰爭的地區，包含朝鮮半島、台海、南海、中東。馬總統執政時期，台海不再面臨對立局面，然而，近期台海卻又再次變成熱點。謝政達副市長致詞時則表示，美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西來台後，共軍加大對台演習力道，我國各界均須了解台灣的選擇策略為何。
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
趙春山教授提到避戰的基礎是備戰。最近經濟學人提到兩次，台海是世界最危險的地方，並將台灣與烏克蘭並列。台灣其實不用打仗，但有兩個因素導致衝突可能發生。第一個是美國與中國大陸關係。拜登與習近平談話主要就是管控分歧、維持對話，避免戰爭升高到衝突。中美都不願戰爭，但誤會可能造成代理人衝突。台灣不會變下一個香港，但可能變下一個烏克蘭。
第二個是中共。在二十大以後，習近平對台政策以中華民族偉大復興的高度來看，台獨是假議題，中共講以疫謀獨，其實是找藉口；促統是真議題，因此二十大後，可能從反獨轉向促統。統一是習近平未來十年一定要達成之目標，因為是第二個百年目標。中國大陸已經在討論統一後兩制的治理問題。統一有兩種可能：和平或武力，當前中共強調前者，但不放棄後者，並提出「非和平」手段的概念。未來戰爭可能不是因為台獨，而是台灣拒絕統一。美國一方面不支持台獨，另一方面對統一沒有立場表態。
趙教授針對上述困境提出兩種可能的解決方式：第一，不讓美國介入。如果對於美國不信任的話，除非美方從戰略模糊轉向戰略清晰，避免給台灣人錯誤訊息。台灣也不應讓美國人覺得台灣的忠誠是理所當然，應該留一些餘地。第二，兩岸對話。目前台灣遇到的問題，包括海峽中線消失、斷交、世界衛生組織有意義參與等議題，過去都曾面臨過，以前因為兩岸能對話，問題才得到解決。
李上將指出，政治決定打不打仗，而軍人決定怎麼打。當前中共對台方面，永恆的維持現狀是不可能的。「中國夢」讓習近平少了台灣統一就沒有偉大復興，但就台灣現況來說，一國兩制不被多數人所接受，因此就可能有衝突。而習近平的工作排程是:一、個人執政；二、共產黨領導；三、中華民族偉大復興；四、把美國趕出西太平洋。這些目標牽涉到四個因素：一、武力統一實力差距；二、美國嚇阻實力；三、「中國夢」要完成多少；四、習近平個人想做多少。
在實力差距方面，目前可觀察四個地方：一、中共內部作戰準備尚不足；二、台灣能登陸的地點不多；三、兩棲作戰的複雜性；四、兩岸後勤支援的能量。李上將接著引述美國翁履中教授調查一百多位台美陸專家的問卷結果說道，多數專家認為兩岸終須一戰，而2027-2035年是最可能爆發衝突的時間；至於美國會來支援的方式，多半專家認為是烏克蘭模式，不支持軍事介入。
李上將亦提到國防的關鍵在於：避戰、嚇阻、打贏戰爭。當前我方國防處境困難，軍事準備不夠，又有前述提到的無形上的分裂，並且沒有正確的戰略。關於避戰的方式，應該要把「中國」跟中共切開，對其他13億人友善一點，「和『中』保台」。像老羅斯福所說的，一手蘿蔔、一手棒子。關於嚇阻，學理上有三種，包括報復、延伸和拒止。台灣應做的是後者，要靠自己而非美國。嚇阻還有三C，competence (能力)、credibility(可信度)、communication(溝通)。台灣在能力上需要有正確戰略，即不對稱戰力，以及大量、有高存活能力、精準、分散、成本效益非常好的武器，而非先進武器。在戰略上不應停留在制空、制海。在經濟上，要考慮資源分配、排序問題。最後，要如何讓對岸相信我方有抵抗決心方面，李上將認為波羅的海、阿富汗的例子可做參考，因此，我國應成立國土防衛部，重點不是兵役延長，是訓練內容，一年找來訓練兩次，用好的資源與待遇，到戰時方能如塔利班武裝部隊般地機動運用。
最後，周一騰教授從歷史的角度切入，說明我們並非活在全球化的初始階段，美國米爾斯海默教授的The Great Illusion一書中說明在有大量互賴下，還是爆發戰爭，烏克蘭事件則告訴我們，供應鏈的斷鏈可以很快。以1930-1940年的法國為例，法國未及時改變作戰思維，他們當時不想再打仗，也因此未準備好作戰，他們人數比德國多，但未準備好打應該打的仗，因而陷入險境。雖然就對台的海上入侵來說，難度很高，但台灣方面仍應盡量避免誤判。
📚 "Preparing for war? Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" Symposium
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a "Preparation for War" on Tuesday, November 29th, 111, from 1:30pm to 3pm. Avoiding war? --Taiwan's Choice" symposium was hosted by Ambassador Xia Liyan, then President of the Council, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda of New Taipei City, and invited Admiral Li Xieming (CEO of the Center for Peace and Security of Taipei Institute of Political Science and Economics, Visiting Senior Fellow of 2049 think tank in Washington, D.C., and former Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense), Professor H. Chunshan (Honorary Professor of the Mainland Institute of Tanjiang University, Chief Advisor of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Foundation, former director of the Institute of East Asia Studies, Russian Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for International Relations Studies), and Prof. Meng (Associate Professor of History Department of Cheng University, Director of the Academic Exchange Foundation
Ambassador Xia Liyan said in his speech that recently newspapers often see issues such as whether there may be war between the two sides, whether military service is extended, and whether the US and Japan allies will support them. In the past, the most war-prone areas in the world included the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the During the reign of Ma President the Taiwan Straits no longer faced opposition. However, recently the Taiwan Strait has become a hot spot again. In his speech, Deputy Mayor Xie Zhengda said that after US House Speaker Pelosi came to Taiwan, the Communist military has stepped up its exercises against Taiwan, and all walks of life in our country need to understand Taiwan's choice strategy.
Professor Wing Chunshan mentioned that the basis of avoiding war is preparation for war. The Economist recently mentioned twice that the Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous place in the world and puts Taiwan alongside Ukraine. Taiwan doesn't really have to go to war, but two factors make conflict possible. The first is the relationship between the United States and mainland China. Biden's conversation with Xi is mainly about managing differences, maintaining dialogue, and preventing war from escalating into conflict. Neither China nor the US want war, but misunderstanding can cause proxy conflict. Taiwan won't be the next Hong Kong, but it could be the next Ukraine.
The second is the Communist Party. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan is viewed from the height of the great revival of the Chinese nation, Taiwan independence is a fake issue. The CCP says that the epidemic is seeking independence, but it is actually an excuse; the promotion of unity is a real issue. Therefore, after the 20th Congress, Unification is a goal Xi Jinping must achieve in the next decade, because it is the second centennial goal. Mainland China is already discussing the issue of governance of the two systems after reunification. Unification is possible in two ways: peace or force, with the current CCP emphasizing the former but not giving up the latter, and proposing the concept of “non-peaceful” means. The future war may not be due to Taiwan independence, but Taiwan's refusal to reunify. On the one hand, the United States does not support Taiwan independence, on the other hand, has no position on
Professor Wu suggested two possible solutions to this dilemma: First, not to allow the US to step in. If there is no trust in the US, unless the US side shifts from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, avoid sending the wrong message to the Taiwanese. Taiwan should not let Americans take Taiwan's loyalty for granted, and some room should be left. Second, talk between the two sides. The problems currently encountered by Taiwan, including the disappearance of the middle line of the Strait, the breaking of diplomatic ties, and the meaningful participation of the World Health Organization, have all been faced in the past, and the problems were solved only because the two sides
Admiral Lee pointed out that politics decide not to fight, while the military decide how to fight. At present, it is impossible to maintain the status quo forever. The "Chinese dream" has made Xi Jinping without Taiwan's reunification without a great revival, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, one country, two systems is not accepted by the majority, so there is a possibility of conflict. Xi Jinping's work schedule is: first, personal rule; second, leadership of the Communist Party; third, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; and fourth, driving the United States out of the western Pacific. These goals involve four factors: first, the gap in force of unifying power; second, the ability of the United States to deter; third, how much the "Chinese dream" needs to be accomplished; and fourth, how much Xi Jinping personally wants to do.
In terms of power gap, four places can be observed: first, the CCP's internal combat preparation is not enough; second, Taiwan's limited landing sites are available; third, the complexity of amphibious operations; and fourth, the energy of cross-strait logistics support. General Lee went on to quote the results of a survey conducted by American Professor Weng Shizhong of more than 100 Taiwanese and American experts, saying that most experts believe that the two sides of the Strait will eventually have a war, and that 2027-2035 is the most likely time to break out of conflict. As for the way the United States will come to support, most experts
Admiral Lee also mentioned that the key to national defense is: avoiding, deterring, and winning wars. Our current defense situation is difficult, military preparation is inadequate, the invisible divisions mentioned above, and there is no right strategy. As for ways to avoid war, we should cut "China" away from the CCP, be kind to the other 1.3 billion people, "and keep Taiwan with "China". Like old Roosevelt said, one hand and one hand stick. There are three kinds of doctrine about deterrence, including revenge, extension, and denial. Taiwan should do the latter, rely on itself, not the United States. There are three Cs of determent: Competence, Credibility, and Communication. Taiwan needs the right strategy in terms of capabilities, i.e. asymmetric warfare, and large quantities of highly viable, accurate, scattered, and cost-effective weapons, not advanced weapons. Strategic should not stop at air superiority and sea control. Economically, consider resource allocation and ordering issues. Finally, how to convince the other side that we have the determination to resist, Admiral Lee thinks that the Baltic Sea and Afghanistan examples can be used as reference. Therefore, our country should set up a Ministry of Homeland Defense. The focus is not on extending military service, but on training content. Find training twice a year. With good resources and treatment, it can only be used in wartime like the Taliban armed forces.
Finally, Monday's Professor Yao cut in history to show that we are not living in the initial stages of globalization, Professor Mearsheimer's book The Great Illusion shows that war breaks out in the midst of a lot of mutual dependence, and the events in Ukraine show that supply chains can be broken quickly. Take France in 1930-1940 for example, France did not change its mindset in time, they did not want to fight again, and therefore were not ready to fight, they outnumbered Germany, but not ready to fight the war they should fight, so they were in danger. Although the difficulties are high in terms of maritime invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan should try to avoid miscalculation.
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