【本會黃奎博秘書長於蘋果日報評論〈G20的熱鬧與門道〉】
剛結束的「20國集團」(G20)峰會重要性極高。美國、中國大陸、日本、德國、印度、英國、法國、巴西等19個國民生產毛額(GDP)排在世界前30幾名的要角,再加上歐盟,都是它的成員。...之後還將陸續召開包括財政部長與央行行長、觀光部長、經濟部長、外交部長等8場部長級會議,其中不包括國防部長會議。跟一些重要國際組織一樣,G20採共識決,以免因訴諸投票導致組織凝聚力降低。
***台融入國際主流參考***
我國與G20會員國家與組織的GDP相比,遠勝南非。可惜因為兩岸關係及國際政治,我國連試著爭取成為G20會員的機會都沒有。但我國對於G20的發展既應看熱鬧也要看門道,因為無論會議的共識或美、中互動,都將深深影響我國經貿與戰略利益。
如同以往,本年《G20大阪領袖宣言》洋洋灑灑臚列出不具法律約束力的政策共識。例如在經貿面向,強調「自由、公平、不歧視、透明、可預測及穩定的貿易與投資環境」,並保持市場開放。在金融範疇,鼓勵自願性評估及執行《G20永續融資運作綱領》,並對防制洗錢、恐怖主義組織取得資金的管道等等也特別重視。
又如在社會平權領域,聚焦於高齡化社會、青年就業、女性培力、童工或非法勞工等等。在包容性與永續發展方面,除了持續推動聯合國永續發展目標(SDGs)及所謂的「3E+S」(能源安全、經濟效能、環境加安全),美國特別要求載入其退出《巴黎氣候協定》但仍努力防止氣候變遷等語。
G20的領袖宣言等於是國際主流社會的共識,我國中央政府從中可獲得一些啟發。中央政府應研究G20會議過程及宣言,預判相關議題的國際趨勢與作法,研商可能對我產生的影響,據以檢視、調整相關政策內容,之後向民間宣導並尋求合作對象與資源,利用「公私夥伴關係」強化因應世界變局的能力。
***中美互賴架構難撼***
川普在G20後的記者會表示,保持對中國大陸的輸美2000億美元貨品課徵25%的關稅,額外的3000多億美元貨品暫不加徵,但要求中共當局按照美國建議清單加大對美採購。他也突然宣布,允許美國企業續賣相關產品給華為(但不將其自商務部不信任實體名單上除名),因為售量非常大,而且從他言談可知,美國高科技產業就此聯手向川普政府遊說應已奏效。
另據新華社報導,川普向習近平重申將繼續奉行「一中政策」,對於「台灣問題」會嚴肅以對。
G20「川習會」後,我們仍不確定美中貿易戰會被導向何方,但可以再次確認美、中經貿互相依存甚深,遑論其他政治、非傳統安全等領域,所以川普短期內或可用保護主義略微削弱中國大陸經貿實力,但撼動不了雙方既有的互動協作架構。
【The G20 enthusiasm and doorway of the G20 at the Apple Daily 】The just-concluded G20 summit is of great importance. The US, mainland China, Japan, Germany, India, Britain, France, Brazil, etc. 19 key players in the world's top 30 gross domestic product (GDP), plus the European Union, are all its members... Eight ministerial-level meetings including finance ministers and central bank governors, tourism ministers, economy ministers, and foreign ministers will be held, not including the defense ministers meeting. Like some major international organizations, the G20 adopted a consensus decision so as not to reduce organizational cohesion by resort to voting.***Taiwan integration into international mainstream reference***Our country's GDP compared to the G20 member countries and organizations is far better than South Africa. Unfortunately, due to cross-strait relations and international politics, our country does not even have a chance to try to become a member of the G However, China should look at both enthusiasm and doorway for the development of the G20 because no matter the consensus of the meeting or the interaction between the United States and China, it will deeply affect our economic, trade and strategic interests.As in the past, this year's G20 Osaka Leaders' Declaration onion sets out a non-legally binding policy consensus. For example, in the context of economic and trade, emphasis is placed on "free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment" and keeping markets open. In the financial sphere, voluntary assessment and implementation of the G20 Sustainable Finance Operations Programme is encouraged, with special emphasis on prevention of money laundering, access to funds for terrorist organizations, etc.Another example is in the field of social equality, focusing on an aging society, youth employment, female empowerment, child labor or illegal labor, etc. In terms of inclusive and sustainable development, in addition to continuing to promote the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the so-called "3E+S" (energy security, economic efficiency, environment plus security), the US specifically requested to include language such as its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement but still working to prevent climate change.The G20 leaders' manifesto is the consensus of the mainstream international community, and our central government can draw some inspiration from it. The central government should study the G20 meeting process and manifesto, anticipate the international trends and practices of the relevant issues, and consider the possible impact on me, review and adjust the relevant policy content, and then promote and seek partners and resources to the private community, and use "public-private partnership" to strengthen its ability to respond to world changes.**The Sino-US mutual dependence structure is hard to shake***Trump said at a post-G20 press conference that it would keep 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion of goods imported from China to the United States, with an additional $300 billion worth of goods not being levied, but asked the Chinese authorities to increase purchases from the United States in line with the list of recommendations. He also suddenly announced that American companies would be allowed to renew their products to Huawei (but not to remove them from the Commerce Department's list of non-confidence entities) because the sales volume was so large, and as he said, the U.S. high-tech industry joined forces to lobby the Trump administration on this shouldAccording to the Xinhua news agency, Trump reiterated to Xi Jinping that he will continue to pursue the "one China policy" and take the "Taiwan issue" seriously.After the G20 Sichuan Xi meeting, we are still not sure where the US-China trade war will be led, but we can reconfirm that the US-China economic and trade are deeply interdependent, let alone other political, non-traditional security and other areas, so Trump may use protectionism to slightly reduce China's economic and trade strength in the short term, but it cannot shake the existing framework of interaction and cooperation between the twoFull text link: https://tw.appledaily.com/forum/daily/20190701/38379904/