【新聞報導/座談會內容】
本會於本(107)年12月12日舉辦「亞太政經局勢」座談會，邀請到資深外交官及政經學者主持、與談「新南向政策與區域經貿發展」及「美國與中國大陸政經關係」。以下轉載自各家報導，若欲觀看全場座談會內容，可點擊文末第四個直播連結。
第一場【新南向政策與區域經貿發展】
鄭文華大使表示新南向政策的具體工作面向涵蓋產業人才發展、醫療衛生合作、區域農業發展等，若能長期推動，將深化我與東協及南亞國家的關係，並有助台灣推動參與區域經貿整合。《跨太平洋全面夥伴進展協定》（CPTPP）預計年底生效，即將啟動第一輪關稅減讓，大部分會員國將享受99%以上的減稅；兩岸關係若再不理順，台灣未來將難以加入CPTPP及以東協為中心的《區域經濟全面夥伴協定》（RCEP）兩大經貿組織，面臨嚴峻關稅挑戰。
本會秘書長黃奎博教授提出「三優」為政府投入大量資源，讓各單位都動了起來，台灣與東南亞國家的互動頻率有所提升；「三憂」是台灣與東南亞國家的連結性需要長時間投入資源，至今2年多以來，我國經貿成長方向似乎尚未導向新南向目標區域，台灣對大陸每年貿易仍成長9%，而對東南亞僅成長4%，而兩岸關係不好，新南向推動不易，若資源無法兼及大陸及新南向政策，相當可惜。
本會資深顧問張良任大使談及目前東協占據台灣貿易市場的15%，而台灣僅占東協市場的2%，顯示東協對台市場重視相對有限。又新南向政策推動已兩年，外交部長能不能訪問東南亞國家?若能造訪是否可以見到當地國的部長級官員? 是否將簽署雙邊貿易協定? 台灣能否參與CPTPP、RCEP等多邊經貿關係? 均是重要檢驗指標。
第二場【美國與中國大陸政經關係】
本會理事黃介正教授認為台灣夾在「中」美兩大強人之間，要找出路相當困難，接下來一段時間台灣將面臨親美、親「中」道路選擇，而不是統獨選擇。尤其是如今《台灣旅行法》成為美國國內法，美國對兩岸關係已成為「二法三公報」，美國可能會藉明年《台灣關係法》40週年的機會，實現台美官員互訪。九合一選舉後，「維持現狀」已不再受民意支持，「九二共識、一中各表」也不再被大陸接受，雙方面擠壓下，台灣2020年總統大選要找出新的論述，恢復兩岸關係相當困難。
林建山社長表示大陸正從附庸化國家走向經濟替代、自主，並在做進口替代、貿易移轉，大陸對美貿易已降其總額16%以下，目標是5%以下，可見美國對大陸的經濟控制力量已逐漸喪失，對美國來說是很大的威脅；關稅戰只是中美衝突的前菜，華為副董事長孟晚舟將是引爆中美大冷戰的標靶人物，中美90天談判期一過，雙方即將陷入大冷戰，台灣將因此受到高度影響。
本會副會長令狐榮達大使表示美國雖然支持台灣，但「中」美關係一旦不好，兩岸關係接下來也不會好到哪裡去，台灣國際空間將更受為受限。自2016年後，台灣的國際參與就變得更為艱難，如友邦皆支持台灣參與國際民用航空組織（ICAO），但在大陸反對下也沒用。
新南向政策 退休大使：長期推動有助台灣(中央廣播電台)https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
中美衝突擴大 台將受創深(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
新南向成效差 改善兩岸扭轉經貿(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【直播】亞太政經局勢座談會 談新南向政策、美中政經關係(上報) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
【News report/seminar content 】
The Association held a symposium on "Asia-Pacific Political and Economic Situation" on 12 December (107) and invited senior diplomats and political and economic scholars to host and discuss "New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development" and "Political and Economic Relations between the United States and mainland China". Here's a repost from each of the stories. To watch the full session, click the fourth live link at the end of the article.
Session 1 【New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development 】
Ambassador Wu Wenhua said that the specific work of the New Southbound Policy covers industrial talent development, medical and health cooperation, regional agricultural development, etc. If it can be promoted in the long term, it will deepen my relationship with ASEAN and South Asian countries, and help Taiwan to promote its participation in regional economic and trade The Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to come into effect by the end of the year. The first round of tariff reductions is about to be launched. Most member countries will enjoy more than 99% of the tax cuts. If cross-strait relations are ignored, Taiwan will find it difficult to join the CPTPP and ASEAN-centered Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) two major economic and trade organizations, facing severe tariff
Professor Huang Kuibo, Secretary-General of this Council, proposed that the "three best" invests a lot of resources for the government, which has made all units move, and the frequency of interaction between Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries has increased. The "three worries" is that Taiwan's connection with Southeast Asian countries requires a long time to invest resources. Over the past two years, China's economic and trade growth direction does not seem to be directed to the new southbound target area. Taiwan's trade with the mainland is still growing by 9%, while Southeast Asia is only growing by 4% while cross-strait relations are not good. It is not easy to promote the new
Ambassador Zhang Liangren, Senior Advisor of the Council, spoke about the current ASEAN account for 15% of Taiwan's trade market, while Taiwan only accounts for 2%, indicating that ASEAN places relatively limited emphasis on Taiwan's market. It has been two years since the New Southbound Policy has been promoted, can the Foreign Minister visit Southeast Asian countries? Can I see the ministers of the country if I can visit? Will a bilateral trade agreement be signed? Can Taiwan participate in multilateral economic and trade relations such as CPTPP and RCEP? All are important test indicators.
Session 2 【Political and Economic Relations between the United States and Mainland China 】
Professor Huang Kai-zheng, a member of the Council, believes that Taiwan is caught between the two strongmen of the "China" and the United States, and it is very difficult to find the way. In the coming period, Taiwan will face the choice of pro-American and pro- Especially now that the Taiwan Travel Act has become the domestic law of the United States, and the United States' cross-strait relations have become the "two laws and three communique", the United States may take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act next year After the nine-in-one election, "maintaining the status quo" is no longer supported by public opinion, "the 1992 consensus, the one-China table" is no longer accepted by the mainland. Under the pressure of both sides, Taiwan's 2020 election President It is very difficult to find new arguments to restore
President Lin Jianshan said that the mainland is moving from a vassalized country to economic replacement and independence, and is doing import substitution and trade transfer. The mainland's trade with the US has dropped below 16%, the target is below 5%. It can be seen that the economic control of the US over the mainland has gradually been lost, which is a great threat to the US. The tariff war is only a pre-course of the Sino-US conflict. Meng Wanzhou, deputy chairman of Huawei, will be the target figure for the Sino-US Cold War. Once the 90 days of negotiations between China and the US, the two sides are
Ambassador Fu Rongda, Vice President of the Council, said that although the United States supports Taiwan, once the "China" US relationship is not good, cross-strait relations will not go better in the future, and Taiwan's international space will be more limited Since 2016, Taiwan's international engagement has become more difficult, as friends support Taiwan's participation in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but it has not worked in the face of mainland opposition.
New Southbound Policy Retired Ambassador: Long-term promotion helps Taiwan (CBC Radio) https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
China-US conflict expands Taiwan will be deeply hurt (Chen Times) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
The performance of the new southbound is poor. Improve cross-strait economic and trade reverse (Zhongzhong News) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【LIVE 】APAC Political and Economic Situation Symposium on New Southbound Policy, US-China Political and Economic Relations (reported) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
本會於本(107)年12月12日舉辦「亞太政經局勢」座談會，邀請到資深外交官及政經學者主持、與談「新南向政策與區域經貿發展」及「美國與中國大陸政經關係」。以下轉載自各家報導，若欲觀看全場座談會內容，可點擊文末第四個直播連結。
第一場【新南向政策與區域經貿發展】
鄭文華大使表示新南向政策的具體工作面向涵蓋產業人才發展、醫療衛生合作、區域農業發展等，若能長期推動，將深化我與東協及南亞國家的關係，並有助台灣推動參與區域經貿整合。《跨太平洋全面夥伴進展協定》（CPTPP）預計年底生效，即將啟動第一輪關稅減讓，大部分會員國將享受99%以上的減稅；兩岸關係若再不理順，台灣未來將難以加入CPTPP及以東協為中心的《區域經濟全面夥伴協定》（RCEP）兩大經貿組織，面臨嚴峻關稅挑戰。
本會秘書長黃奎博教授提出「三優」為政府投入大量資源，讓各單位都動了起來，台灣與東南亞國家的互動頻率有所提升；「三憂」是台灣與東南亞國家的連結性需要長時間投入資源，至今2年多以來，我國經貿成長方向似乎尚未導向新南向目標區域，台灣對大陸每年貿易仍成長9%，而對東南亞僅成長4%，而兩岸關係不好，新南向推動不易，若資源無法兼及大陸及新南向政策，相當可惜。
本會資深顧問張良任大使談及目前東協占據台灣貿易市場的15%，而台灣僅占東協市場的2%，顯示東協對台市場重視相對有限。又新南向政策推動已兩年，外交部長能不能訪問東南亞國家?若能造訪是否可以見到當地國的部長級官員? 是否將簽署雙邊貿易協定? 台灣能否參與CPTPP、RCEP等多邊經貿關係? 均是重要檢驗指標。
第二場【美國與中國大陸政經關係】
本會理事黃介正教授認為台灣夾在「中」美兩大強人之間，要找出路相當困難，接下來一段時間台灣將面臨親美、親「中」道路選擇，而不是統獨選擇。尤其是如今《台灣旅行法》成為美國國內法，美國對兩岸關係已成為「二法三公報」，美國可能會藉明年《台灣關係法》40週年的機會，實現台美官員互訪。九合一選舉後，「維持現狀」已不再受民意支持，「九二共識、一中各表」也不再被大陸接受，雙方面擠壓下，台灣2020年總統大選要找出新的論述，恢復兩岸關係相當困難。
林建山社長表示大陸正從附庸化國家走向經濟替代、自主，並在做進口替代、貿易移轉，大陸對美貿易已降其總額16%以下，目標是5%以下，可見美國對大陸的經濟控制力量已逐漸喪失，對美國來說是很大的威脅；關稅戰只是中美衝突的前菜，華為副董事長孟晚舟將是引爆中美大冷戰的標靶人物，中美90天談判期一過，雙方即將陷入大冷戰，台灣將因此受到高度影響。
本會副會長令狐榮達大使表示美國雖然支持台灣，但「中」美關係一旦不好，兩岸關係接下來也不會好到哪裡去，台灣國際空間將更受為受限。自2016年後，台灣的國際參與就變得更為艱難，如友邦皆支持台灣參與國際民用航空組織（ICAO），但在大陸反對下也沒用。
新南向政策 退休大使：長期推動有助台灣(中央廣播電台)https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
中美衝突擴大 台將受創深(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
新南向成效差 改善兩岸扭轉經貿(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【直播】亞太政經局勢座談會 談新南向政策、美中政經關係(上報) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
【News report/seminar content 】
The Association held a symposium on "Asia-Pacific Political and Economic Situation" on 12 December (107) and invited senior diplomats and political and economic scholars to host and discuss "New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development" and "Political and Economic Relations between the United States and mainland China". Here's a repost from each of the stories. To watch the full session, click the fourth live link at the end of the article.
Session 1 【New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development 】
Ambassador Wu Wenhua said that the specific work of the New Southbound Policy covers industrial talent development, medical and health cooperation, regional agricultural development, etc. If it can be promoted in the long term, it will deepen my relationship with ASEAN and South Asian countries, and help Taiwan to promote its participation in regional economic and trade The Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to come into effect by the end of the year. The first round of tariff reductions is about to be launched. Most member countries will enjoy more than 99% of the tax cuts. If cross-strait relations are ignored, Taiwan will find it difficult to join the CPTPP and ASEAN-centered Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) two major economic and trade organizations, facing severe tariff
Professor Huang Kuibo, Secretary-General of this Council, proposed that the "three best" invests a lot of resources for the government, which has made all units move, and the frequency of interaction between Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries has increased. The "three worries" is that Taiwan's connection with Southeast Asian countries requires a long time to invest resources. Over the past two years, China's economic and trade growth direction does not seem to be directed to the new southbound target area. Taiwan's trade with the mainland is still growing by 9%, while Southeast Asia is only growing by 4% while cross-strait relations are not good. It is not easy to promote the new
Ambassador Zhang Liangren, Senior Advisor of the Council, spoke about the current ASEAN account for 15% of Taiwan's trade market, while Taiwan only accounts for 2%, indicating that ASEAN places relatively limited emphasis on Taiwan's market. It has been two years since the New Southbound Policy has been promoted, can the Foreign Minister visit Southeast Asian countries? Can I see the ministers of the country if I can visit? Will a bilateral trade agreement be signed? Can Taiwan participate in multilateral economic and trade relations such as CPTPP and RCEP? All are important test indicators.
Session 2 【Political and Economic Relations between the United States and Mainland China 】
Professor Huang Kai-zheng, a member of the Council, believes that Taiwan is caught between the two strongmen of the "China" and the United States, and it is very difficult to find the way. In the coming period, Taiwan will face the choice of pro-American and pro- Especially now that the Taiwan Travel Act has become the domestic law of the United States, and the United States' cross-strait relations have become the "two laws and three communique", the United States may take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act next year After the nine-in-one election, "maintaining the status quo" is no longer supported by public opinion, "the 1992 consensus, the one-China table" is no longer accepted by the mainland. Under the pressure of both sides, Taiwan's 2020 election President It is very difficult to find new arguments to restore
President Lin Jianshan said that the mainland is moving from a vassalized country to economic replacement and independence, and is doing import substitution and trade transfer. The mainland's trade with the US has dropped below 16%, the target is below 5%. It can be seen that the economic control of the US over the mainland has gradually been lost, which is a great threat to the US. The tariff war is only a pre-course of the Sino-US conflict. Meng Wanzhou, deputy chairman of Huawei, will be the target figure for the Sino-US Cold War. Once the 90 days of negotiations between China and the US, the two sides are
Ambassador Fu Rongda, Vice President of the Council, said that although the United States supports Taiwan, once the "China" US relationship is not good, cross-strait relations will not go better in the future, and Taiwan's international space will be more limited Since 2016, Taiwan's international engagement has become more difficult, as friends support Taiwan's participation in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but it has not worked in the face of mainland opposition.
New Southbound Policy Retired Ambassador: Long-term promotion helps Taiwan (CBC Radio) https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
China-US conflict expands Taiwan will be deeply hurt (Chen Times) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
The performance of the new southbound is poor. Improve cross-strait economic and trade reverse (Zhongzhong News) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【LIVE 】APAC Political and Economic Situation Symposium on New Southbound Policy, US-China Political and Economic Relations (reported) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
Images 1 of 2
【新聞報導/座談會內容】
本會於本(107)年12月12日舉辦「亞太政經局勢」座談會，邀請到資深外交官及政經學者主持、與談「新南向政策與區域經貿發展」及「美國與中國大陸政經關係」。以下轉載自各家報導，若欲觀看全場座談會內容，可點擊文末第四個直播連結。
第一場【新南向政策與區域經貿發展】
鄭文華大使表示新南向政策的具體工作面向涵蓋產業人才發展、醫療衛生合作、區域農業發展等，若能長期推動，將深化我與東協及南亞國家的關係，並有助台灣推動參與區域經貿整合。《跨太平洋全面夥伴進展協定》（CPTPP）預計年底生效，即將啟動第一輪關稅減讓，大部分會員國將享受99%以上的減稅；兩岸關係若再不理順，台灣未來將難以加入CPTPP及以東協為中心的《區域經濟全面夥伴協定》（RCEP）兩大經貿組織，面臨嚴峻關稅挑戰。
本會秘書長黃奎博教授提出「三優」為政府投入大量資源，讓各單位都動了起來，台灣與東南亞國家的互動頻率有所提升；「三憂」是台灣與東南亞國家的連結性需要長時間投入資源，至今2年多以來，我國經貿成長方向似乎尚未導向新南向目標區域，台灣對大陸每年貿易仍成長9%，而對東南亞僅成長4%，而兩岸關係不好，新南向推動不易，若資源無法兼及大陸及新南向政策，相當可惜。
本會資深顧問張良任大使談及目前東協占據台灣貿易市場的15%，而台灣僅占東協市場的2%，顯示東協對台市場重視相對有限。又新南向政策推動已兩年，外交部長能不能訪問東南亞國家?若能造訪是否可以見到當地國的部長級官員? 是否將簽署雙邊貿易協定? 台灣能否參與CPTPP、RCEP等多邊經貿關係? 均是重要檢驗指標。
第二場【美國與中國大陸政經關係】
本會理事黃介正教授認為台灣夾在「中」美兩大強人之間，要找出路相當困難，接下來一段時間台灣將面臨親美、親「中」道路選擇，而不是統獨選擇。尤其是如今《台灣旅行法》成為美國國內法，美國對兩岸關係已成為「二法三公報」，美國可能會藉明年《台灣關係法》40週年的機會，實現台美官員互訪。九合一選舉後，「維持現狀」已不再受民意支持，「九二共識、一中各表」也不再被大陸接受，雙方面擠壓下，台灣2020年總統大選要找出新的論述，恢復兩岸關係相當困難。
林建山社長表示大陸正從附庸化國家走向經濟替代、自主，並在做進口替代、貿易移轉，大陸對美貿易已降其總額16%以下，目標是5%以下，可見美國對大陸的經濟控制力量已逐漸喪失，對美國來說是很大的威脅；關稅戰只是中美衝突的前菜，華為副董事長孟晚舟將是引爆中美大冷戰的標靶人物，中美90天談判期一過，雙方即將陷入大冷戰，台灣將因此受到高度影響。
本會副會長令狐榮達大使表示美國雖然支持台灣，但「中」美關係一旦不好，兩岸關係接下來也不會好到哪裡去，台灣國際空間將更受為受限。自2016年後，台灣的國際參與就變得更為艱難，如友邦皆支持台灣參與國際民用航空組織（ICAO），但在大陸反對下也沒用。
新南向政策 退休大使：長期推動有助台灣(中央廣播電台)https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
中美衝突擴大 台將受創深(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
新南向成效差 改善兩岸扭轉經貿(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【直播】亞太政經局勢座談會 談新南向政策、美中政經關係(上報) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
【News report/seminar content 】
The Association held a symposium on "Asia-Pacific Political and Economic Situation" on 12 December (107) and invited senior diplomats and political and economic scholars to host and discuss "New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development" and "Political and Economic Relations between the United States and mainland China". Here's a repost from each of the stories. To watch the full session, click the fourth live link at the end of the article.
Session 1 【New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development 】
Ambassador Wu Wenhua said that the specific work of the New Southbound Policy covers industrial talent development, medical and health cooperation, regional agricultural development, etc. If it can be promoted in the long term, it will deepen my relationship with ASEAN and South Asian countries, and help Taiwan to promote its participation in regional economic and trade The Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to come into effect by the end of the year. The first round of tariff reductions is about to be launched. Most member countries will enjoy more than 99% of the tax cuts. If cross-strait relations are ignored, Taiwan will find it difficult to join the CPTPP and ASEAN-centered Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) two major economic and trade organizations, facing severe tariff
Professor Huang Kuibo, Secretary-General of this Council, proposed that the "three best" invests a lot of resources for the government, which has made all units move, and the frequency of interaction between Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries has increased. The "three worries" is that Taiwan's connection with Southeast Asian countries requires a long time to invest resources. Over the past two years, China's economic and trade growth direction does not seem to be directed to the new southbound target area. Taiwan's trade with the mainland is still growing by 9%, while Southeast Asia is only growing by 4% while cross-strait relations are not good. It is not easy to promote the new
Ambassador Zhang Liangren, Senior Advisor of the Council, spoke about the current ASEAN account for 15% of Taiwan's trade market, while Taiwan only accounts for 2%, indicating that ASEAN places relatively limited emphasis on Taiwan's market. It has been two years since the New Southbound Policy has been promoted, can the Foreign Minister visit Southeast Asian countries? Can I see the ministers of the country if I can visit? Will a bilateral trade agreement be signed? Can Taiwan participate in multilateral economic and trade relations such as CPTPP and RCEP? All are important test indicators.
Session 2 【Political and Economic Relations between the United States and Mainland China 】
Professor Huang Kai-zheng, a member of the Council, believes that Taiwan is caught between the two strongmen of the "China" and the United States, and it is very difficult to find the way. In the coming period, Taiwan will face the choice of pro-American and pro- Especially now that the Taiwan Travel Act has become the domestic law of the United States, and the United States' cross-strait relations have become the "two laws and three communique", the United States may take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act next year After the nine-in-one election, "maintaining the status quo" is no longer supported by public opinion, "the 1992 consensus, the one-China table" is no longer accepted by the mainland. Under the pressure of both sides, Taiwan's 2020 election President It is very difficult to find new arguments to restore
President Lin Jianshan said that the mainland is moving from a vassalized country to economic replacement and independence, and is doing import substitution and trade transfer. The mainland's trade with the US has dropped below 16%, the target is below 5%. It can be seen that the economic control of the US over the mainland has gradually been lost, which is a great threat to the US. The tariff war is only a pre-course of the Sino-US conflict. Meng Wanzhou, deputy chairman of Huawei, will be the target figure for the Sino-US Cold War. Once the 90 days of negotiations between China and the US, the two sides are
Ambassador Fu Rongda, Vice President of the Council, said that although the United States supports Taiwan, once the "China" US relationship is not good, cross-strait relations will not go better in the future, and Taiwan's international space will be more limited Since 2016, Taiwan's international engagement has become more difficult, as friends support Taiwan's participation in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but it has not worked in the face of mainland opposition.
New Southbound Policy Retired Ambassador: Long-term promotion helps Taiwan (CBC Radio) https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
China-US conflict expands Taiwan will be deeply hurt (Chen Times) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
The performance of the new southbound is poor. Improve cross-strait economic and trade reverse (Zhongzhong News) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【LIVE 】APAC Political and Economic Situation Symposium on New Southbound Policy, US-China Political and Economic Relations (reported) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
本會於本(107)年12月12日舉辦「亞太政經局勢」座談會，邀請到資深外交官及政經學者主持、與談「新南向政策與區域經貿發展」及「美國與中國大陸政經關係」。以下轉載自各家報導，若欲觀看全場座談會內容，可點擊文末第四個直播連結。
第一場【新南向政策與區域經貿發展】
鄭文華大使表示新南向政策的具體工作面向涵蓋產業人才發展、醫療衛生合作、區域農業發展等，若能長期推動，將深化我與東協及南亞國家的關係，並有助台灣推動參與區域經貿整合。《跨太平洋全面夥伴進展協定》（CPTPP）預計年底生效，即將啟動第一輪關稅減讓，大部分會員國將享受99%以上的減稅；兩岸關係若再不理順，台灣未來將難以加入CPTPP及以東協為中心的《區域經濟全面夥伴協定》（RCEP）兩大經貿組織，面臨嚴峻關稅挑戰。
本會秘書長黃奎博教授提出「三優」為政府投入大量資源，讓各單位都動了起來，台灣與東南亞國家的互動頻率有所提升；「三憂」是台灣與東南亞國家的連結性需要長時間投入資源，至今2年多以來，我國經貿成長方向似乎尚未導向新南向目標區域，台灣對大陸每年貿易仍成長9%，而對東南亞僅成長4%，而兩岸關係不好，新南向推動不易，若資源無法兼及大陸及新南向政策，相當可惜。
本會資深顧問張良任大使談及目前東協占據台灣貿易市場的15%，而台灣僅占東協市場的2%，顯示東協對台市場重視相對有限。又新南向政策推動已兩年，外交部長能不能訪問東南亞國家?若能造訪是否可以見到當地國的部長級官員? 是否將簽署雙邊貿易協定? 台灣能否參與CPTPP、RCEP等多邊經貿關係? 均是重要檢驗指標。
第二場【美國與中國大陸政經關係】
本會理事黃介正教授認為台灣夾在「中」美兩大強人之間，要找出路相當困難，接下來一段時間台灣將面臨親美、親「中」道路選擇，而不是統獨選擇。尤其是如今《台灣旅行法》成為美國國內法，美國對兩岸關係已成為「二法三公報」，美國可能會藉明年《台灣關係法》40週年的機會，實現台美官員互訪。九合一選舉後，「維持現狀」已不再受民意支持，「九二共識、一中各表」也不再被大陸接受，雙方面擠壓下，台灣2020年總統大選要找出新的論述，恢復兩岸關係相當困難。
林建山社長表示大陸正從附庸化國家走向經濟替代、自主，並在做進口替代、貿易移轉，大陸對美貿易已降其總額16%以下，目標是5%以下，可見美國對大陸的經濟控制力量已逐漸喪失，對美國來說是很大的威脅；關稅戰只是中美衝突的前菜，華為副董事長孟晚舟將是引爆中美大冷戰的標靶人物，中美90天談判期一過，雙方即將陷入大冷戰，台灣將因此受到高度影響。
本會副會長令狐榮達大使表示美國雖然支持台灣，但「中」美關係一旦不好，兩岸關係接下來也不會好到哪裡去，台灣國際空間將更受為受限。自2016年後，台灣的國際參與就變得更為艱難，如友邦皆支持台灣參與國際民用航空組織（ICAO），但在大陸反對下也沒用。
新南向政策 退休大使：長期推動有助台灣(中央廣播電台)https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
中美衝突擴大 台將受創深(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
新南向成效差 改善兩岸扭轉經貿(中時旺報) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【直播】亞太政經局勢座談會 談新南向政策、美中政經關係(上報) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
【News report/seminar content 】
The Association held a symposium on "Asia-Pacific Political and Economic Situation" on 12 December (107) and invited senior diplomats and political and economic scholars to host and discuss "New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development" and "Political and Economic Relations between the United States and mainland China". Here's a repost from each of the stories. To watch the full session, click the fourth live link at the end of the article.
Session 1 【New Southbound Policy and Regional Economic and Trade Development 】
Ambassador Wu Wenhua said that the specific work of the New Southbound Policy covers industrial talent development, medical and health cooperation, regional agricultural development, etc. If it can be promoted in the long term, it will deepen my relationship with ASEAN and South Asian countries, and help Taiwan to promote its participation in regional economic and trade The Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to come into effect by the end of the year. The first round of tariff reductions is about to be launched. Most member countries will enjoy more than 99% of the tax cuts. If cross-strait relations are ignored, Taiwan will find it difficult to join the CPTPP and ASEAN-centered Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) two major economic and trade organizations, facing severe tariff
Professor Huang Kuibo, Secretary-General of this Council, proposed that the "three best" invests a lot of resources for the government, which has made all units move, and the frequency of interaction between Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries has increased. The "three worries" is that Taiwan's connection with Southeast Asian countries requires a long time to invest resources. Over the past two years, China's economic and trade growth direction does not seem to be directed to the new southbound target area. Taiwan's trade with the mainland is still growing by 9%, while Southeast Asia is only growing by 4% while cross-strait relations are not good. It is not easy to promote the new
Ambassador Zhang Liangren, Senior Advisor of the Council, spoke about the current ASEAN account for 15% of Taiwan's trade market, while Taiwan only accounts for 2%, indicating that ASEAN places relatively limited emphasis on Taiwan's market. It has been two years since the New Southbound Policy has been promoted, can the Foreign Minister visit Southeast Asian countries? Can I see the ministers of the country if I can visit? Will a bilateral trade agreement be signed? Can Taiwan participate in multilateral economic and trade relations such as CPTPP and RCEP? All are important test indicators.
Session 2 【Political and Economic Relations between the United States and Mainland China 】
Professor Huang Kai-zheng, a member of the Council, believes that Taiwan is caught between the two strongmen of the "China" and the United States, and it is very difficult to find the way. In the coming period, Taiwan will face the choice of pro-American and pro- Especially now that the Taiwan Travel Act has become the domestic law of the United States, and the United States' cross-strait relations have become the "two laws and three communique", the United States may take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act next year After the nine-in-one election, "maintaining the status quo" is no longer supported by public opinion, "the 1992 consensus, the one-China table" is no longer accepted by the mainland. Under the pressure of both sides, Taiwan's 2020 election President It is very difficult to find new arguments to restore
President Lin Jianshan said that the mainland is moving from a vassalized country to economic replacement and independence, and is doing import substitution and trade transfer. The mainland's trade with the US has dropped below 16%, the target is below 5%. It can be seen that the economic control of the US over the mainland has gradually been lost, which is a great threat to the US. The tariff war is only a pre-course of the Sino-US conflict. Meng Wanzhou, deputy chairman of Huawei, will be the target figure for the Sino-US Cold War. Once the 90 days of negotiations between China and the US, the two sides are
Ambassador Fu Rongda, Vice President of the Council, said that although the United States supports Taiwan, once the "China" US relationship is not good, cross-strait relations will not go better in the future, and Taiwan's international space will be more limited Since 2016, Taiwan's international engagement has become more difficult, as friends support Taiwan's participation in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but it has not worked in the face of mainland opposition.
New Southbound Policy Retired Ambassador: Long-term promotion helps Taiwan (CBC Radio) https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2004981
China-US conflict expands Taiwan will be deeply hurt (Chen Times) https://www.chinatimes.com/.../news.../20181213000218-260309
The performance of the new southbound is poor. Improve cross-strait economic and trade reverse (Zhongzhong News) https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20181213000214-260309
【LIVE 】APAC Political and Economic Situation Symposium on New Southbound Policy, US-China Political and Economic Relations (reported) https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=53948
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