轉發：本會理事、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所黃介正教授的中時專欄文章〈刀尖上的美中台四十年〉
美、中、台3組雙邊關係在40年前發生根本性的翻轉，美國外交承認從台北轉向北京，中共「11屆3中全會」開始改革開放，兩岸停止象徵性的「單打雙停」炮戰。不僅小三角形勢移轉，美國、蘇聯、中國大陸亦因此形成大三角，為冷戰美、蘇兩個超級強權結構開了個突破口。
如今三強皆矢志奮發有為，習近平有「中華民族偉大復興」，川普要「讓美國再次強盛」，普丁則圖「再造俄羅斯光榮」。只是現在的戰略三角形轉了個圈，蘇聯解體後的俄羅斯如今經濟產值低於廣東省，中國大陸則在改革開放40年後，將要走近世界舞台的中央，成為與美國競爭的頭號勁敵.....
對即將到來的建交40周年，華府與北京將在何種氣氛下紀念慶祝，難以預測。眼看今年9月底雙方軍艦在南海遭遇，幾近對撞，距離僅41公尺；10月初美國副總統彭斯演講直言「台灣對民主的擁抱，為所有中國人提供了一條更好的道路」；中國輸美產品再度提高關稅期限，就在建交紀念當天。接下來端看本月底的阿根廷G20川習峰會能否力阻駭浪之將至，何止眾所矚目。
台灣在11月24日「九合一選舉」以及公民投票結果出爐之後，政治必然產生板塊挪移與權力重組，但是各政黨僅有極短的時間重新整隊，因為2020總統大選之初選角逐旋踵而至，政治社會動員既無從休兵，台灣人民還真辛苦。
美中建交40年，恰逢兩強對局比畫之際，台美關係相向而行之時，亦為北京發表《告台灣同胞書》40周年之際，國際、區域及兩岸形勢均在刀尖之上，各界菁英與國人同胞又怎能只向內看而不察外部的大變局。
Retweeted: Chinese time column article by Professor Huang Jiezheng, Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamjiang University, "40 years of the US-China Taiwan on the tip of the knife"
The three sets of bilateral relations between the United States, China and Taiwan took a fundamental turn 40 years ago, US diplomatic recognition shifted from Taipei to Beijing, the "3rd Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee" began reform and opening up, and the two sides stopped the symbolic "single double stop" artillery Not only the small triangle situation has shifted, but the United States, the Soviet Union, and mainland China have also formed a big triangle, opening a breakthrough for the Cold War two superpower structures of the United States and the Soviet Union
Now all three are committed to doing something, Xi Jinping has a "great revival of the Chinese nation", Trump wants to "make America strong again", Putin wants to "re-create the glory of Russia". Only now the strategic triangle has turned around, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the economic output of Russia is now lower than that of Guangdong Province, and China, 40 years after the reform and opening up, will be close to the center of the world stage and become the number one rival to the US...
It is difficult to predict the atmosphere in which Washington and Beijing will celebrate the upcoming 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Watching the two sides' warship encounter in the South China Sea at the end of September this year, almost collided, only 41 meters away. At the beginning of October, US Vice President President Pence said bluntly that "Taiwan's embrace of democracy provides a better road for all Chinese people"; Chinese products to the United States raised the tariff deadline again, on the day of the establishment Next, let's see if the G20 Sichuan Xi Summit in Argentina at the end of this month can stop the waves from coming.
After Taiwan's "nine-in-one election" on November 24th and the results of the referendum, politics will inevitably result in a shift and power reorganisation. However, the political parties have only a very short time to regroup, because the 2020 election campaign starts at the beginning of the election. The political and social mobilization is not possible, and the Taiwanese people are really working hard.
40 years since the establishment of US-China diplomatic relations, coincides with the two strong powers' comparison, the relationship between Taiwan and the United States is working in the opposite direction, and the 40th anniversary of Beijing's publication of the "Letter to Taiwan compatriots". The international, regional and cross-Strait situation is on the tip of the knife. How can elites and compatriots from all walks of life only look inside


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