轉發：本會理事、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所黃介正教授於聯合報名人堂的專欄文章〈美國的台海安全惡夢〉
對於中國大陸武力犯台意圖與能力，美國政府與智囊近來頻頻示警，究竟係評斷美中強權競爭對抗終將聚焦台海？抑或美國官學界聯手為軍工企業唱和商機？還是務實評估兩岸軍力失衡確已達危殆之境？
...我國與美國戰略思維層次範圍不同...雙方本不會也無需完全一致。儘管如此，美國重建印太戰力需時、大陸機艦演訓日增、台海軍力嚴重失衡、兩岸官方對話機制中斷、我國防預算難作大幅增加、少子化以致募兵不易等，台美決策高層均了然於胸。
在此等不容否認的事實下，兩國對於台海可能發生軍事危機時間點之估算，是在習近平所指「二○三五年中國基本實現現代化」之後？還是在我國下一代主戰裝備建置完成並形成戰力之後？...
中共解放軍「實戰化訓練」、「做好軍事鬥爭準備」、「要準備打仗」等宣示，以及朱日和基地模擬攻占我總統府、戰機軍艦在台海周邊遠海長航，美國朋友愈來愈當一回事，國人同胞卻好像愈來愈麻木。
美國防官員近來明顯將我國「防衛固守、重層嚇阻」以及「戰力保存、濱海決勝、灘岸殲敵」的軍事戰略以及台澎防衛作戰構想，統包成「全面防衛構想」（ＯＤＣ）大力肯定，並反覆強調應儘快建構機動、精準、不對稱戰力。美國政策演講、閉門會談、辦研討會，好似提醒我國的建軍和備戰，都要「跟時間賽跑」。
「台灣必須對自身的國防安全負起更大的責任」，我們很容易就把美方的諄諄提醒，看成美國要我們學川普總統，刪減社會福利、教育文化支出，來挹注國防預算；看成美國官商沆瀣一氣，逼迫我們花大錢買更多的美國武器裝備。我們似乎很少去想，美國納稅義務人為何要負擔台灣防衛，美國母親憑什麼要讓自己的小孩涉險衛台；而我們國人卻一直有大陸不會對台動武的想法，提高國防預算不會增加選票的直覺，以及別人被募兵就夠了的心態。
關於台海發生軍事衝突，美國的「噩夢想定」我們不一定要埋單，但以當前兩岸僵局與軍力對比，台灣對於國防安全卻也絕不可能是一廂情願的「美夢」。
以上截自：https://udn.com/news/story/7340/3490349
Retweeted: Professor Huang Jiezheng, Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies of Tamjiang University, op-ed in the United Daily News Hall of Fame "The Taiwan Strait Security Nightmare in the United States"
With regard to the intention and ability of mainland China to commit military crimes against Taiwan, the US government and think tanks have frequently warned recently. Is it the judgement that the rivalry between the US and China will eventually focus on the Taiwan Strait? Or is the U.S. official and academic community joining forces to sing and business opportunities for military industrial enterprises? Or is it a realistic assessment that the military imbalance between the two sides of the strait is indeed in danger?
I'm sorry. Our country and the US have different levels of strategic thinking... The two sides would not and need not be completely consistent. Nonetheless, the US needs time to rebuild the Indo-Pacific war force, the growing training of mainland aircraft ships, the serious imbalance in Taiwan's naval power, the suspension of the official cross-Strait dialogue mechanism, the difficulty of increasing our defense budget significantly, and the reduction of children makes it difficult to recruit troops, etc. The decision-making of Taiwan
Given these indisputable facts, the two countries' estimate of the timing of a possible military crisis in the Taiwan Straits comes after Xi Jinping refers to "China's basic modernisation in 2035". Or after the next generation of main battle equipment in our country is completed and formed?...
The Chinese People's Liberation Army's "practical combat training", "ready for military struggle", "ready for war", and "ready for war", as well as Zhu Ri and base's simulation of capturing me Presidential Office Building The aircraft and warship are taking long-distance sailing around the Taiwan Strait, American friends are becoming more and more serious, but compatriots seem to be getting more and more numb.
U.S. defense officials have recently clearly endorsed our military strategy of "defense stubbornness, heavy level of deterrence" and "power preservation, victory in the sea, and enemy on the beach" as well as Taiwan's defense operations concept into the "Comprehensive Defense Concept" (ODC), and repeatedly stressed the need to build mobile, accurate, and asymmetric warfare as soon as possible. American policy speeches, closed-door talks, and seminars are like reminding us that our nation's military building and war preparation must "race against time".
"Taiwan must take greater responsibility for its own national defense and security," we can easily see the US warning as the US wants us to learn from Trump's President and reduce social welfare, education and culture spending, to pump up the defense budget; as US officials and businessmen, forcing us to spend a lot of money to buy more American weapons and equipment. It seems that we rarely think about why American tax payers should bear the burden of Taiwan's defense, why American mothers should put their children at risk in Taiwan, while our countrymen have always had the idea that the mainland will not use force against Taiwan, the intuition that raising the defense budget will not increase votes, and the mindset that others are recruiting is enough.
With regard to military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the US "nightmare" must not necessarily pay the bill, but with the current cross-strait standoff and military strength, Taiwan can never be a willing "dream" for national defense and security.
The above is from: https://udn.com/news/story/7340/3490349
對於中國大陸武力犯台意圖與能力，美國政府與智囊近來頻頻示警，究竟係評斷美中強權競爭對抗終將聚焦台海？抑或美國官學界聯手為軍工企業唱和商機？還是務實評估兩岸軍力失衡確已達危殆之境？
...我國與美國戰略思維層次範圍不同...雙方本不會也無需完全一致。儘管如此，美國重建印太戰力需時、大陸機艦演訓日增、台海軍力嚴重失衡、兩岸官方對話機制中斷、我國防預算難作大幅增加、少子化以致募兵不易等，台美決策高層均了然於胸。
在此等不容否認的事實下，兩國對於台海可能發生軍事危機時間點之估算，是在習近平所指「二○三五年中國基本實現現代化」之後？還是在我國下一代主戰裝備建置完成並形成戰力之後？...
中共解放軍「實戰化訓練」、「做好軍事鬥爭準備」、「要準備打仗」等宣示，以及朱日和基地模擬攻占我總統府、戰機軍艦在台海周邊遠海長航，美國朋友愈來愈當一回事，國人同胞卻好像愈來愈麻木。
美國防官員近來明顯將我國「防衛固守、重層嚇阻」以及「戰力保存、濱海決勝、灘岸殲敵」的軍事戰略以及台澎防衛作戰構想，統包成「全面防衛構想」（ＯＤＣ）大力肯定，並反覆強調應儘快建構機動、精準、不對稱戰力。美國政策演講、閉門會談、辦研討會，好似提醒我國的建軍和備戰，都要「跟時間賽跑」。
「台灣必須對自身的國防安全負起更大的責任」，我們很容易就把美方的諄諄提醒，看成美國要我們學川普總統，刪減社會福利、教育文化支出，來挹注國防預算；看成美國官商沆瀣一氣，逼迫我們花大錢買更多的美國武器裝備。我們似乎很少去想，美國納稅義務人為何要負擔台灣防衛，美國母親憑什麼要讓自己的小孩涉險衛台；而我們國人卻一直有大陸不會對台動武的想法，提高國防預算不會增加選票的直覺，以及別人被募兵就夠了的心態。
關於台海發生軍事衝突，美國的「噩夢想定」我們不一定要埋單，但以當前兩岸僵局與軍力對比，台灣對於國防安全卻也絕不可能是一廂情願的「美夢」。
以上截自：https://udn.com/news/story/7340/3490349
Retweeted: Professor Huang Jiezheng, Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies of Tamjiang University, op-ed in the United Daily News Hall of Fame "The Taiwan Strait Security Nightmare in the United States"
With regard to the intention and ability of mainland China to commit military crimes against Taiwan, the US government and think tanks have frequently warned recently. Is it the judgement that the rivalry between the US and China will eventually focus on the Taiwan Strait? Or is the U.S. official and academic community joining forces to sing and business opportunities for military industrial enterprises? Or is it a realistic assessment that the military imbalance between the two sides of the strait is indeed in danger?
I'm sorry. Our country and the US have different levels of strategic thinking... The two sides would not and need not be completely consistent. Nonetheless, the US needs time to rebuild the Indo-Pacific war force, the growing training of mainland aircraft ships, the serious imbalance in Taiwan's naval power, the suspension of the official cross-Strait dialogue mechanism, the difficulty of increasing our defense budget significantly, and the reduction of children makes it difficult to recruit troops, etc. The decision-making of Taiwan
Given these indisputable facts, the two countries' estimate of the timing of a possible military crisis in the Taiwan Straits comes after Xi Jinping refers to "China's basic modernisation in 2035". Or after the next generation of main battle equipment in our country is completed and formed?...
The Chinese People's Liberation Army's "practical combat training", "ready for military struggle", "ready for war", and "ready for war", as well as Zhu Ri and base's simulation of capturing me Presidential Office Building The aircraft and warship are taking long-distance sailing around the Taiwan Strait, American friends are becoming more and more serious, but compatriots seem to be getting more and more numb.
U.S. defense officials have recently clearly endorsed our military strategy of "defense stubbornness, heavy level of deterrence" and "power preservation, victory in the sea, and enemy on the beach" as well as Taiwan's defense operations concept into the "Comprehensive Defense Concept" (ODC), and repeatedly stressed the need to build mobile, accurate, and asymmetric warfare as soon as possible. American policy speeches, closed-door talks, and seminars are like reminding us that our nation's military building and war preparation must "race against time".
"Taiwan must take greater responsibility for its own national defense and security," we can easily see the US warning as the US wants us to learn from Trump's President and reduce social welfare, education and culture spending, to pump up the defense budget; as US officials and businessmen, forcing us to spend a lot of money to buy more American weapons and equipment. It seems that we rarely think about why American tax payers should bear the burden of Taiwan's defense, why American mothers should put their children at risk in Taiwan, while our countrymen have always had the idea that the mainland will not use force against Taiwan, the intuition that raising the defense budget will not increase votes, and the mindset that others are recruiting is enough.
With regard to military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the US "nightmare" must not necessarily pay the bill, but with the current cross-strait standoff and military strength, Taiwan can never be a willing "dream" for national defense and security.
The above is from: https://udn.com/news/story/7340/3490349
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