本會黃秘書長奎博評析【川金會難以預測 東亞更詭譎】
文在寅和金正恩預計在四月舉行朝鮮半島第三次元首峰會，而川普和金正恩可能在五月底前進行歷史性會面，東亞區域情勢平添變數…就目前資訊言，至少要思考以下五點。
首先，朝鮮半島的局勢演變似掌握在南、北韓與美國之手… 至少在表面上，俄羅斯、中共、日本都未扮演積極角色。
其次，如果...金正恩承諾將克制核導彈測試和推動朝鮮半島無核化為真，短期內美軍勢必減少在東北亞的部署及非例行活動，以相對展現善意。若美軍一定要在東亞地區以...維持和強化存在的合理性，擴大劍指南中國海的作為並非不可能。屆時不僅美中摩擦加劇，也會連帶使菲律賓、越南及我國等涉入方要花更多心神因應「池魚之殃」。
第三，無論「川金會」會面形式為何，幾可說美國承認北韓是一個（準）核武國家；即便川普政府對外宣稱並非如此，恐怕國際也不會輕易相信。…
第四，文在寅等於進行一場政治賭博，因為他的內外政治信用，均繫於金正恩能否信守承諾。
…最後，美國的承諾可能受到懷疑。川普政府一直要求盟邦及其他國家要對北韓進行全面制裁和施以最大限度的壓力，結果突然在北韓尚未公開配合聯合國要求時，就表現出接受「川金會」的意願。對於配合的國家言，未嘗不是一個觀察指標，亦即配合聯合國和美國去制裁北韓「認真就輸了」。
…如果最後因故無法進行峰會，改以視訊、電話、電郵甚至推特等社群媒體打招呼，或者兩人會面時不歡而散，或者會後「言出未必行」，都不必太驚訝，因為他們是川普和金正恩。
原文摘錄自聯合報
https://udn.com/news/story/11321/3022808
Commentary by Secretary-General Huang Kuibo of this Association [Chuan-Kim will be unpredictable, East Asia will be more
Moon and Kim Jong Un are expected to hold the third summit of heads of state on the Korean peninsula in April, while Trump and Kim Jong Un may meet for a historic meeting before the end of May, adding to the regional situation in East Asia... As far as the information is concerned, think at least the following five points.
First, the evolution of the Korean Peninsula seems to be in the hands of South, North Korea and the United States... At least on the surface, Russia, China, and Japan are not playing an active role.
Second, if... Kim Jong-un has promised to restrain nuclear missile testing and promote the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and in the short term, the US military is bound to reduce deployment and non-routine activities in Northeast Asia to show relative goodwill. If the U.S. military must be in East Asia... It is not impossible to maintain and strengthen the rationality of existence and expand the sword guide to the sea of China. At that time, not only will the US-China friction intensify, but also the Philippines, Vietnam, and China involved parties to spend more time dealing with the "pond fish's peel".
Third, no matter what the format of the "Chuan-Kim meeting" meeting, the US can say that North Korea is a (quasi)nuclear weapon state. Even if the Trump administration claims otherwise, I am afraid the international community will not easily believe
Fourth, Moon is tantamount to a political gamble, because his internal and external political credibility depends on whether Kim Jong-un keeps his promises.
I'm sorry. Finally, America's promise may be in doubt. The Trump administration has been asking its allies and others to impose full sanctions and maximum pressure on North Korea, and suddenly it has shown willingness to accept the "Chuan-Kim meeting" when North Korea has not publicly responded to UN demands. For countries that cooperate, it is not an observation indicator, that is, cooperation with the United Nations and the United States in sanctions against North Korea "is serious and lost".
I'm sorry. Don’t be surprised if you can’t have the summit for some reason, say hello via video, phone, email, or even Twitter, or if the two don’t like it when they meet, or if they don’t say anything after the meeting, because they are Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Original excerpt from the United Daily News
https://udn.com/news/story/11321/3022808
文在寅和金正恩預計在四月舉行朝鮮半島第三次元首峰會，而川普和金正恩可能在五月底前進行歷史性會面，東亞區域情勢平添變數…就目前資訊言，至少要思考以下五點。
首先，朝鮮半島的局勢演變似掌握在南、北韓與美國之手… 至少在表面上，俄羅斯、中共、日本都未扮演積極角色。
其次，如果...金正恩承諾將克制核導彈測試和推動朝鮮半島無核化為真，短期內美軍勢必減少在東北亞的部署及非例行活動，以相對展現善意。若美軍一定要在東亞地區以...維持和強化存在的合理性，擴大劍指南中國海的作為並非不可能。屆時不僅美中摩擦加劇，也會連帶使菲律賓、越南及我國等涉入方要花更多心神因應「池魚之殃」。
第三，無論「川金會」會面形式為何，幾可說美國承認北韓是一個（準）核武國家；即便川普政府對外宣稱並非如此，恐怕國際也不會輕易相信。…
第四，文在寅等於進行一場政治賭博，因為他的內外政治信用，均繫於金正恩能否信守承諾。
…最後，美國的承諾可能受到懷疑。川普政府一直要求盟邦及其他國家要對北韓進行全面制裁和施以最大限度的壓力，結果突然在北韓尚未公開配合聯合國要求時，就表現出接受「川金會」的意願。對於配合的國家言，未嘗不是一個觀察指標，亦即配合聯合國和美國去制裁北韓「認真就輸了」。
…如果最後因故無法進行峰會，改以視訊、電話、電郵甚至推特等社群媒體打招呼，或者兩人會面時不歡而散，或者會後「言出未必行」，都不必太驚訝，因為他們是川普和金正恩。
原文摘錄自聯合報
https://udn.com/news/story/11321/3022808
Commentary by Secretary-General Huang Kuibo of this Association [Chuan-Kim will be unpredictable, East Asia will be more
Moon and Kim Jong Un are expected to hold the third summit of heads of state on the Korean peninsula in April, while Trump and Kim Jong Un may meet for a historic meeting before the end of May, adding to the regional situation in East Asia... As far as the information is concerned, think at least the following five points.
First, the evolution of the Korean Peninsula seems to be in the hands of South, North Korea and the United States... At least on the surface, Russia, China, and Japan are not playing an active role.
Second, if... Kim Jong-un has promised to restrain nuclear missile testing and promote the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and in the short term, the US military is bound to reduce deployment and non-routine activities in Northeast Asia to show relative goodwill. If the U.S. military must be in East Asia... It is not impossible to maintain and strengthen the rationality of existence and expand the sword guide to the sea of China. At that time, not only will the US-China friction intensify, but also the Philippines, Vietnam, and China involved parties to spend more time dealing with the "pond fish's peel".
Third, no matter what the format of the "Chuan-Kim meeting" meeting, the US can say that North Korea is a (quasi)nuclear weapon state. Even if the Trump administration claims otherwise, I am afraid the international community will not easily believe
Fourth, Moon is tantamount to a political gamble, because his internal and external political credibility depends on whether Kim Jong-un keeps his promises.
I'm sorry. Finally, America's promise may be in doubt. The Trump administration has been asking its allies and others to impose full sanctions and maximum pressure on North Korea, and suddenly it has shown willingness to accept the "Chuan-Kim meeting" when North Korea has not publicly responded to UN demands. For countries that cooperate, it is not an observation indicator, that is, cooperation with the United Nations and the United States in sanctions against North Korea "is serious and lost".
I'm sorry. Don’t be surprised if you can’t have the summit for some reason, say hello via video, phone, email, or even Twitter, or if the two don’t like it when they meet, or if they don’t say anything after the meeting, because they are Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Original excerpt from the United Daily News
https://udn.com/news/story/11321/3022808
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