對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
Images 7 of 12
對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
Images 8 of 12
對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
Images 11 of 12
對外關係協會(以下稱本會)於本(105)年12月19日舉辦「國際間對美國川普政府的預判及態度」座談會，由本會副會長鄭文華大使主持。輔仁大學日文系何思慎教授、國立政治大學外交系連弘宜副教授、國立政治大學歐盟研究中信莫內計畫主持人張台麟教授及淡江大學大陸所趙春山榮譽教授等日本、俄羅斯、歐洲以及大陸事務專家擔任講員，另邀台灣智庫賴怡忠執行委員為與談人。
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
何思慎教授分析日本與美、「中」、俄雙邊關係。他提到美國是戰後日本的依靠，但川普政府下的美日同盟充滿變數，因此日本首相安倍在川普尚未正式就職前就先於其私人宅邸與川普會面。而美俄關係也將牽動日俄關係，目前俄羅斯總統普丁對日享有主動地位，對北方四島的領土爭議態度轉趨強硬，倘若美俄關係因川普政府上台後改善，日本政策在對外政策上應改以自保為主，並經營與周國國家的友好關係。在中日關係上，雖然近來中國大陸軍機演習對日本造成壓力，以及日本在推動雙方海空緊急聯絡機制上因釣魚台領土爭議有所限制，但是翌(106)年是日中建交45周年，後(107)年則是中日友好和平條約簽訂40周年，將是未來中日關係改善的契機。
連弘宜教授指出2002年是美俄關係最好的時候，但是雙方關係自2003年第二次波灣(伊拉克)戰爭後變差，尤其當美國因2014年烏克蘭危機對俄羅斯實施制裁後，雙方關係一落千丈，由於美俄兩國間沒有共同利益，雙方互動僅是「微笑外交」，因此川普上台後若要改善美俄關係，可以從取消對俄制裁、核武裁減及敘利亞問題著手，然除非川普改變美國在敘利亞的立場，否則美俄仍難以在敘利亞及IS問題上合作。
張台麟教授認為歐盟擔心川普上台後將影響到歐盟的核心價值如人權、民主及公平貿易，加上目前歐盟有四大危機、一項困難，分別是經濟不景氣、難民危機、恐怖主義攻擊、英國脫歐效應及在烏克蘭事件後與俄羅斯關係緊張，導致歐洲極右及民粹勢力蔓延，期待所謂強人的出現，可從近來匈牙利、義大利公投以及法國、奧地利總統大選觀察出，在經貿問題上，歐盟與美國的TTIP可能寸步難行；在氣候變遷議題上，川普可能選擇退出或乾脆不參與巴黎協定；而川普對北約的保守姿態也可能因此讓歐盟在共同國防外交政策上更為整合，是危機也可能是轉機。
趙春山教授指出在中美關係上，中國大陸的主流意見認為美國不會放棄其在亞洲的地位，但維繫工具可能改變，改採軍事外交手段，並不同於歐巴馬任內偏好多邊外交，改以雙邊突破的方式。另外中國大陸自知還無法單獨與美國對抗，又明年中國共產黨的第19次全國代表大會(十九大)關係到大陸領導人習近平「兩個一百年」中國夢的政策實現，也關係到他任內的權力維持，而其中的對台工作既是內政問題也是相對於南海及朝鮮半島議題上最能掌握的，因此除非太過分危及到其核心利益及習近平的權力基礎，中國大陸在十九大召開前應不會有大動作出現；另外，趙教授也強調台灣應小心擇善自身，不要介入美國的國內政治，或是介入強權間的競爭。
賴怡忠委員回應認為川普團隊可能會強化與以色列的關係，並藉俄國力量擊潰IS自中東撤軍，而中俄之間隱藏著不信任，倘若未來川普真與俄羅斯合作，可能會鬆動中俄關係，但不至於聯俄制中，又川普幕僚中即便有來自華爾街的投資家，但對中經濟政策仍相當強硬，或許也反映出華爾街對中國經濟看法有所轉變，如果經濟作為中美關係潤滑劑的可能性降低，那麼未來的潤滑劑會是什麼呢?
鄭文華副會長總結認為在川普就任後，才能做出更多觀察，且除了總統，也須考慮美國國會、文官體系等對政策制定及執行的影響力。美國的一舉一動都將影響世界，而美國如何下亞太這盤棋，也須持續關注，尤其對台灣來說，應務實面對至為重要的美中台關係。
The Association for Foreign Relations (hereafter referred to as the Association) held a symposium on "International Pre-Prevention and Attitude to the Trump Administration of the United States" on December 19, 2015 moderated by Ambassador Wu Wenhua, Vice-President of the Association. Prof. He Sishen from the Department of Japanese Language at Fu Ren University, Associate Professor Lian Hongyi from the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, Professor Zhang Tailin, Host of the Cincoonet Project in European Union Studies at National Chengchi University, and Honorary Professor of Chinese Studies at Tamjiang University, etc. Japanese, Russian, European and mainland affairs experts, including Mr. Lai Yizhong, a Taiwanese think tank
Prof. He Sisan analyzes the bilateral relations between Japan and the US, "China" and Russia. He mentioned that the US is the reliance of postwar Japan, but the U.S.-Japan alliance under the Trump administration is so volatile that Japanese Prime Minister Abe met with Trump at his private residence before he officially took office. US-Russia relations will also stimulate Japan-Russia relations. At present, Russia President Putin enjoys an active status with Japan, and his attitude towards the territorial dispute over the four northern islands has become tougher. If the US-Russia relations improve after the Trump administration took office, Japan's foreign policy should focus on self-protection and operate friendly relations with Zhou countries. In terms of Sino-Japanese relations, although the recent Chinese military exercises have put pressure on Japan, and Japan has limited its efforts to promote the emergency maritime and air contact mechanism between the two sides due to the territorial dispute over the Quotai territory, 翌 (106) marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese friendship and peace treaty in the next
Prof. Lien Hongyi pointed out that 2002 was the best time for US-Russia relations, but relations between the two sides have been worse since the second Gulf (Iraq) war in 2003, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 Ukraine crisis, relations have plummeted. Since the US and Russia have no common interests, the interaction between the two sides is only "smile diplomacy". So if Trump takes office, he can improve US-Russia relations by lifting sanctions against Russia, nuclear weapons reductions and Syria, it will be difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate on Syria and IS issues unless Trump changes the US position in Syria.
Prof. Zhang Tailin believes that the EU is worried that Trump will affect the core values of the EU, such as human rights, democracy and fair trade, plus the current EU has four major crises, one of the difficulties, namely, economic recession, refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, Brexit effect, and tensions with Russia after the Ukraine incident, leading to the spread of far right and populist forces in Europe. Looking forward to the appearance of the so-called strongman, which can be seen from the recent referendums in Hungary, Italy and France and Austria. President The EU and the US TTIP may not be able to move forward on economic and trade issues. On climate change, Trump may choose to withdraw from or simply not participate in the Paris Agreement. Trump's conservative stance towards NATO may also lead to the EU in the
Prof. Wu Chunshan pointed out that in Sino-US relations, the mainstream opinion in mainland China is that the United States will not give up its position in Asia, but that the tools of maintenance may change and use military diplomacy instead of the Obama administration's preference for multilateral diplomacy and a bilateral breakthrough. In addition, China knows that it is not yet able to stand up to the US alone. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year (the 19th National Congress) is related to the realization of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's "two hundred years" policy of the Chinese dream, and the maintenance of power during his term of office. Among them, Taiwan's work is both an internal issue as well as relative to the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula issues. Therefore, China should not make any big moves before the 19th National Congress unless it is too dangerous to its core interests and Xi Jinping's power base. In addition, Prof. Jiang also stressed that Taiwan should be careful not to interfere in the domestic politics of
Mr. Lai Yizhong responded that Trump's team may strengthen relations with Israel and use Russian power to defeat IS withdrawal from the Middle East, while there is a hidden distrust between China and Russia. If Trump really cooperates with Russia in the future, it may loosen Sino-Russian relations, but not to the United Russia system, and even if there are investors from Wall Street in Trump's staff, the economic policy towards China is still quite tough, perhaps reflecting a shift in Wall Street's view of the Chinese economy. If the economy is less likely to be a lubricant for Sino-US relations, what will the future lubricant be?
Vice President Wu Wenhua concluded that more observations can be made after Trump takes office, and that in addition to President the influence of the US Congress, the civil service system, etc. on policy making and implementation must also be considered. Every move of the United States will affect the world, and how the United States plays the Asia-Pacific game of chess must be kept in mind, especially for Taiwan, where the vital US-China-Taiwan relationship should be realistic.
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