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December 18, 2014

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旺報報導本會12月15日「APEC北京峰會後的經貿外交與兩岸關係」座談會:
兩岸緊密的和平發展關係,恐有礙部分國家與我國簽署FTA的意願。政大外交系教授林碧炤15日以南海問題為例說,當菲律賓等東協國家看到兩岸因服貿、ECFA等經貿協定與大陸關係越來越密切時,可能就會認為經濟改善未能幫助安全與政治層面,就不會考慮跟我們簽FTA。
社團法人對外關係協會15日舉辦「APEC北京峰會後的經貿外交與兩岸關係」座談會,林碧炤引《二十一世紀資本論》中的概念指出,過去經濟學都忽略政治層面是不對的。
他舉美國和以色列簽署FTA為例稱,沒人會質疑這兩個國家密切的關係,因此過去雙方不需簽署任何軍事盟約,但後來中東情況有變,美國經考慮後,與以色列簽署了FTA,「這個FTA其實就是一個政治的安保條約」。
林碧炤也點出台灣與各國簽署FTA可能面臨的窘境。他表示,越南為何能加入TPP,當然是美國為應對大陸的一項政治考量,但台灣因服貿、ECFA等經貿協定,給外界的印象是兩岸關係一直在提升,部分與大陸有主權爭議的國家就會擔心,兩岸是否會聯手對付他們,導致不願和我國簽署FTA的困境出現。
Wang Daily reported on the seminar on "Economic and Trade Diplomacy and Cross-Strait Relations after the APEC Beijing Summit" on December 15th:
The close peaceful development of cross-Strait relations may hinder the willingness of some countries to sign FTAs with China. Professor Lin Biju, of the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Political University, said on the 15th that when ASEAN countries such as the Philippines see the cross-Strait relationship with the mainland due to trade and trade agreements such as trade in services and ECFA, they may think that economic improvements have failed to help security and politics, and they will not consider signing FTA
On the 15th, the Association for Foreign Relations held a seminar on "Economic and Trade Diplomacy and Cross-Strait Relations after the APEC Beijing Summit". Lin Bixu cited the concept of Capital in the 21st Century and pointed out that it was wrong for economics to ignore the political aspects in the past.
He cited the signing of the FTA between the United States and Israel as an example, saying that no one would question the close relationship between the two countries, so in the past, the two sides did not need to sign any military treaty, but the situation in the Middle East changed, the United States considered signing the FTA with Israel. "This FTA is actually a political
Lin Baguio also pointed out the dilemma Taiwan might face in signing FTAs with other countries. He said that why Vietnam can join TPP is of course a political consideration for the US to deal with the mainland, but Taiwan's economic and trade agreements such as trade in services and ECFA give the outside world the impression that cross-strait relations have been improving, and some countries with sovereignty disputes with the mainland will worry about whether the two sides will join hands against them, leading to the dilemma of unwillingness to sign FTA
December 18, 2014
Yahoo理財新聞、工商...
 
Yahoo理財新聞、工商時報也登出本會12月15日座談會內容!
【時報-台北電】北京成功舉辦亞太經合會(APEC),淡江大學大陸所所長張五岳直言,2016年不管誰當中華民國總統,如果未來2至4年內,不能讓台灣在雙邊FTA、多邊RTA取得積極進展,誰當總統都會很辛苦,「不要說是小英,找觀世音當總統,都救不了台灣」。
  社團法人對外關係協會15日舉辦的「APEC北京峰會後的經貿外交與兩岸關係」座談會中,張五岳指出,APEC為台灣帶來2個機遇和3個挑戰。就機遇部分,他說,自太陽花學運以來,兩岸關係降至2008年以來的谷底,但APEC讓兩岸揮別陰霾,重新回到雙方政治互信基礎上;再者,台灣也藉APEC平台增進台美關係,相信對台日關係也有正面助益,尤其是此次APEC啟動了亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)議程,台灣若能就此取得進展,對經濟被邊緣化的疑慮,可望有所降低。
  3個挑戰部分,張五岳直言,固然FTAAP已啟動,但對台灣在區域經濟中被邊緣化卻緩不濟急,且在美國杯葛下,希望FTAAP在短時間內取得成果,「這是不可能的任務」。
  但政大外交系教授林碧炤以南海問題為例說,當菲律賓等東協國家看到兩岸因服貿、ECFA等經貿協定與大陸關係越來越密切時,可能就會從「政治上」進行評估,一旦認為經濟改善未能幫助安全與政治層面,「他們就不會考慮跟我們簽FTA」。(新聞來源:工商時報─記者陳筑君╱台北報導)
Yahoo Financial News and Business Times also posted the contents of this panel on December 15th!
【Times-Taipei 電 Beijing successfully hosted the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Zhang Wuyue, director of the mainland director of Tamjiang University, said bluntly. No matter who is President of the Republic of China in 2016, if Taiwan can't make positive progress in bilateral FTA and multilateral RTAs in the next two to four years, whoever is President will be very hard. "Don't say it is Xiaoying, find Guanyin to be President will not save Taiwan
At the seminar on "Economic and Trade Diplomacy and Cross-Strait Relations after the APEC Beijing Summit" held by the Association for Foreign Relations on the 15th, Zhang Wuyue pointed out that APEC brings two opportunities and three challenges to Taiwan. On the opportunity part, he said that since the Sunflower Movement, cross-strait relations have dropped to the bottom since 2008, but APEC has allowed the two sides to shake the gloom and return to the basis of mutual political trust between the two sides. Moreover, Taiwan has also used the APEC platform to enhance Taiwan-US relations. I believe it will also benefit Taiwan-Japan relations positively, especially since the APEC launched the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) agenda. If Taiwan can make progress in this regard, Taiwan's doubts about economic marginalization will be reduced.
Three challenge parts, Zhang Wuyue bluntly said that although FTAAP has been launched, it is not in a hurry for Taiwan to be marginalized in the regional economy, and under the US boycott, hoping that FTAAP will achieve results in a short period of time, "this is an impossible task".
However, Lin Bixi, a professor at the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Political University, said for example, when ASEAN countries such as the Philippines see that the cross-Strait relationship with the mainland is getting closer due to trade agreements such as trade in services and ECFA, they may assess it from the "political" basis. Once they believe that economic improvements have failed to help security and politics, "they (News source: Business Times - Reporter Chen Chujun reporting from Taipei)
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